A study published in PLOS Climate (February 2026) has produced climate simulations for Myanmar at 5 km resolution: a significant step up from the 25-60 km used in previous studies.

Using the WRF model under moderate (SSP2-4.5) and high-emission (SSP5-8.5) scenarios, the study shows annual warming of 0.9 to 2.7°C through end of century, with the Dry Zone heating disproportionately with up to 3.6°C in April under the worst case.

Rainfall changes are uneven: the Shan Hills and Tanintharyi Region face significant drying (10-20%), while the Dry Zone and northwest could see 40-60% more rainfall by end of century under high emission scenario. January, July, August and November are projected to become drier, while June, September and October are expected to get wetter.

The study also flags a health risk: combined peak warming and increased rainfall in June could push wet-bulb temperatures into dangerous territory.

Full paper: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000820